Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
Marssignature
Fbz · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
Abaddon
Khezcute · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
427 picks · 966 bans
Void Spirit
398 picks · 557 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 709 bans
Mars
342 picks · 576 bans
Grimstroke
313 picks · 298 bans
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 291 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 208 bans
Lion
265 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:25
BOOM Esports 53%T1 47%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:52.
Game 2prediction missed25:23
BOOM Esports 53%T1 47%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 55:58.
Game 3prediction correct46:32
BOOM Esports 53%T1 47%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 57:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 53%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3