Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Weaversignature
Tims · 15 games
Banesignature
Skem · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 12 games
Razorsignature
Tino- · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 11 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
440 picks · 269 bans
Mars
392 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 408 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
304 picks · 342 bans
Queen of Pain
286 picks · 454 bans
Ember Spirit
274 picks · 386 bans
Kunkka
267 picks · 478 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 57%
Hero pool strength68% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total67% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:16
BOOM Esports 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 36:55.
Game 2prediction correct31:24
BOOM Esports 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:03.
Game 3prediction correct22:18
BOOM Esports 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 67%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3