DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 3:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 3:0
TATeam Aureusloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tiny
Tims · 19 games
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
JaCkky · 11 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 11 games
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 11 games
Silenceroften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
Team Aureus
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Bristleback
Force · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 4 games
Disruptor
Tims · 3 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
322 picks · 302 bans
Puck
322 picks · 791 bans
Pugna
276 picks · 305 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 749 bans
Snapfire
270 picks · 135 bans
Tusk
268 picks · 247 bans
Marci
260 picks · 784 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aureus
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:29
BOOM Esports 59%Team Aureus 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:04:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSancity
GyrocopterNatsumi
UrsaJaCkky
DawnbreakerForce
MarsJabz
Dragon KnightYopaj
TuskJhocam
SnapfireSkem
WarlockNARMAN
LionTims
Game 2prediction correct20:5
BOOM Esports 57%Team Aureus 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJaCkky
GyrocopterNatsumi
MarciJabz
SlardarForce
Void SpiritSancity
Queen of PainYopaj
HoodwinkJhocam
SnapfireTims
EnchantressNARMAN
DazzleSkem
Game 3prediction correct31:12
BOOM Esports 60%Team Aureus 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinJaCkky
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Queen of PainSancity
Ember SpiritYopaj
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
TimbersawForce
EnchantressNARMAN
DisruptorSkem
Shadow DemonJhocam
ClockwerkTims
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 66%
Series resultBOOM Esports 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3