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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Aureuswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 18 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 12 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
36%

Team Aureus

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 8 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tims · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 6 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
372 picks · 339 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 849 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
326 picks · 165 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
292 picks · 336 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 787 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
278 picks · 126 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 687 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aureus
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:55
BOOM Esports 57%Team Aureus 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 1:49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSancity
48% · 286 games50% · 199 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Sven
SvenJaCkky
55% · 132 games46% · 264 games
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
43% · 299 games56% · 256 games
EarthshakerYopaj
Earthshaker
Disruptor
DisruptorJhocam
53% · 174 games52% · 196 games
SilencerSkem
Silencer
Warlock
WarlockNARMAN
48% · 185 games49% · 161 game
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct21:9
BOOM Esports 57%Team Aureus 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
50% · 191 game45% · 165 games
MorphlingNatsumi
Morphling
Lycan
LycanJabz
52% · 83 games48% · 204 games
Queen of PainYopaj
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
48% · 196 games50% · 152 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNARMAN
60% · 117 games50% · 154 games
SilencerSkem
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorJhocam
46% · 116 games52% · 28 games
GrimstrokeTims
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed11:32
BOOM Esports 59%Team Aureus 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenJaCkky
50% · 172 games45% · 212 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSancity
46% · 178 games46% · 299 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusJabz
58% · 234 games48% · 106 games
AxeForce
Axe
Chen
ChenNARMAN
62% · 163 games46% · 137 games
SilencerSkem
Silencer
Bane
BaneJhocam
56% · 129 games43% · 122 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 66%
Series resultTeam Aureus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3