?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 25 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 22 games
68%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 21 game
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
74%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Tims · 15 games
40%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 19 games
37%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
36%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 14 games
64%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 12 games
58%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
694 picks · 507 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
496 picks · 986 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
407 picks · 517 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
385 picks · 196 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
375 picks · 684 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
324 picks · 306 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 522 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
300 picks · 631 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 35%
Hero pool strength58% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
BOOM Esports 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightJaCkky
47% · 126 games54% · 55 games
AlchemistMATUMBAMAN
Alchemist
Tiny
TinyYopaj
48% · 290 games49% · 134 games
TimbersawmiCKe
Timbersaw
Viper
ViperFbz
43% · 82 games52% · 192 games
Death Prophetzai
Death Prophet
Chen
ChenSkem
65% · 47 games45% · 176 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskTims
49% · 69 games53% · 57 games
EarthshakerBoxi
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction missed5:23
BOOM Esports 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorJaCkky
51% · 262 games47% · 213 games
TerrorbladeMATUMBAMAN
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
46% · 144 games51% · 358 games
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYopaj
45% · 234 games55% · 266 games
Death Prophetzai
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyTims
47% · 398 games61% · 75 games
CheniNSaNiA
Chen
Dazzle
DazzleSkem
47% · 104 games52% · 230 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Game 3prediction correct20:13
BOOM Esports 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 53:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautJaCkky
51% · 131 game48% · 150 games
TerrorbladeMATUMBAMAN
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightYopaj
54% · 169 games51% · 349 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
51% · 254 games50% · 82 games
Visagezai
Visage
Tusk
TuskTims
44% · 116 games44% · 225 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
49% · 189 games60% · 53 games
CheniNSaNiA
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 67%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3