?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 18 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 12 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 12 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
JaCkky · 11 games
64%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
36%

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Raven · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Akashi · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
80%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Raven · 4 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
330 picks · 311 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 809 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
280 picks · 140 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
278 picks · 313 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 757 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
270 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
260 picks · 798 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
BOOM Esports 69%Team Nemesis 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
43% · 160 games50% · 239 games
MorphlingAkashi
Morphling
Puck
PuckSancity
55% · 292 games42% · 102 games
LeshracMac
Leshrac
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
57% · 363 games50% · 199 games
MarsRaven
Mars
Chen
ChenNARMAN
56% · 107 games51% · 364 games
TinyJing
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorJhocam
48% · 135 games49% · 153 games
SilencerPonyo
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed22:27
BOOM Esports 68%Team Nemesis 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 45:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidJaCkky
57% · 37 games45% · 146 games
UrsaAkashi
Ursa
Puck
PuckSancity
51% · 295 games52% · 200 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
56% · 104 games54% · 237 games
MagnusRaven
Magnus
Tusk
TuskJhocam
48% · 279 games45% · 132 games
LeshracJing
Leshrac
Warlock
WarlockNARMAN
46% · 190 games50% · 190 games
PugnaPonyo
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct41:21
BOOM Esports 66%Team Nemesis 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:11:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightJaCkky
46% · 307 games52% · 204 games
MedusaAkashi
Medusa
Abaddon
AbaddonJabz
47% · 206 games53% · 342 games
BeastmasterMac
Beastmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSancity
55% · 252 games51% · 167 games
Dark SeerRaven
Dark Seer
Warlock
WarlockNARMAN
49% · 248 games55% · 297 games
ClockwerkJing
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireJhocam
45% · 204 games47% · 207 games
PugnaPonyo
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 81%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3