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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 13 games
85%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 11 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 10 games
90%

Team SMG

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 20 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 18 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
80%
Lion
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 13 games
77%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 513 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 178 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
302 picks · 237 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
292 picks · 649 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
257 picks · 731 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 397 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 309 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
224 picks · 146 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:19
BOOM Esports 57%Team SMG 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTino-
45% · 92 games52% · 130 games
Faceless VoidMidOne
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
56% · 161 game48% · 223 games
Storm SpiritMoon
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
51% · 191 game43% · 274 games
GrimstrokeAhFu
Grimstroke
Weaver
WeaverTims
54% · 85 games49% · 158 games
GyrocopterRoddgeee
Gyrocopter
Lion
LionSkem
54% · 256 games
Game 2prediction correct59:18
BOOM Esports 52%Team SMG 48%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTino-
51% · 108 games48% · 169 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaYopaj
46% · 118 games50% · 184 games
Monkey KingMidOne
Monkey King
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerFbz
49% · 52 games59% · 243 games
Nyx AssassinAhFu
Nyx Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterTims
43% · 164 games53% · 167 games
AbaddonRoddgeee
Abaddon
Lion
LionSkem
49% · 321 game
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 59%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2