Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team SMGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
Weaversignature
Skem · 12 games
Team SMG
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 29 games
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 14 games
Linasignature
Moon · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
AhFu · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
AhFu · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
537 picks · 381 bans
Mars
456 picks · 648 bans
Queen of Pain
431 picks · 524 bans
Weaver
420 picks · 850 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 179 bans
Kunkka
333 picks · 533 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 527 bans
Wraith King
272 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total69% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:24
BOOM Esports 63%Team SMG 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJaCkky
Queen of PainMoon
Void SpiritYopaj
Drow RangerMidOne
WeaverFbz
EarthshakerAhFu
TidehunterTims
Death ProphetRoddgeee
BaneSkem
Game 2prediction missed30:38
BOOM Esports 62%Team SMG 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 45:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Drow RangerMidOne
PangolierFbz
Ember SpiritMoon
BatriderYopaj
SnapfireAhFu
WeaverTims
BloodseekerRoddgeee
DisruptorSkem
Game 3prediction correct44:17
BOOM Esports 63%Team SMG 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerJaCkky
TinyMidOne
Ember SpiritYopaj
SnapfireMoon
BrewmasterFbz
GrimstrokeAhFu
WeaverTims
BaneRoddgeee
Death ProphetSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 69%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3