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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tech Free Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 21 game
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fbz · 15 games
67%

Tech Free Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
TraVins · 4 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Varizh · 3 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
db- · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 3 games
33%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
dalul · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 584 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
490 picks · 438 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
467 picks · 233 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
361 picks · 740 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 509 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
329 picks · 761 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
319 picks · 277 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 93 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Tech Free Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:33
BOOM Esports 74%Tech Free Gaming 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Tech Free Gaming in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
51% · 142 games44% · 120 games
RazorTraVins
Razor
Tiny
TinyArmel
51% · 244 games42% · 152 games
KunkkaMamangDaya
Kunkka
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaunuel
56% · 66 games45% · 38 games
Axedb-
Axe
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
57% · 93 games55% · 154 games
Shadow Shamandalul
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneTims
57% · 28 games43% · 109 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct36:15
BOOM Esports 71%Tech Free Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenJaCkky
49% · 248 games56% · 203 games
DoomTraVins
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaArmel
47% · 173 games59% · 197 games
Dark Seerdb-
Dark Seer
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJabz
43% · 362 games54% · 387 games
TinyMamangDaya
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTims
47% · 249 games50% · 142 games
Shadow Shamandalul
Shadow Shaman
Silencer
SilencerJaunuel
43% · 139 games52% · 242 games
GyrocopterVarizh
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction correct33:9
BOOM Esports 73%Tech Free Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerJaCkky
47% · 52 games52% · 292 games
MorphlingTraVins
Morphling
Puck
PuckArmel
58% · 204 games49% · 266 games
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
Dragon Knight
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJabz
46% · 239 games39% · 18 games
Axedb-
Axe
Batrider
BatriderJaunuel
52% · 298 games54% · 214 games
Dark Willowdalul
Dark Willow
Slark
SlarkTims
49% · 65 games44% · 68 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 87%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3