Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionBBOTSquadloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Carstenszwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOTSquad
Batrideroften banned
yabyoo · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
yabyoo · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
749 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1009 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 376 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 952 bans
Doom
394 picks · 623 bans
Undying
386 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% BOTSquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:26
BOTSquad 47%Carstensz 53%
The model gave 53% on Carstensz — the game was taken by BOTSquad in 24:25.
Game 2prediction correct15:51
BOTSquad 47%Carstensz 53%
The model gave 53% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Carstensz in 36:50.
Game 3prediction correct40:23
BOTSquad 47%Carstensz 53%
The model gave 53% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Carstensz in 46:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 53%
Series resultCarstensz 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3