Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BPM 128loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
iG Vitalitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BPM 128
No games played over 6 months.
iG Vitality
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 4 games
Clockwerk
Sj · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Winter Wyvern
Sj · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Summer · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
734 picks · 464 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 570 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 450 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 380 bans
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 596 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% BPM 128
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:36
BPM 128 47%iG Vitality 53%
The model gave 53% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 42:17.
Game 2prediction correct39:27
BPM 128 47%iG Vitality 53%
The model gave 53% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 49:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 53%
Series resultiG Vitality 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2