ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO4
result vs prediction
Bramewin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
ARCREDloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Keeper of the Light
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
Focus · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
SsaSpartan · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
ARCRED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 475 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 617 bans
Puck
302 picks · 689 bans
Mars
294 picks · 515 bans
Hoodwink
281 picks · 118 bans
Lina
260 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
257 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:22
Brame 53%ARCRED 47%
The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 34:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 53%
Series resultBrame 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1