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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cascade Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
44%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
43%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
454 picks · 1010 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
425 picks · 611 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 643 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 666 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
334 picks · 290 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
280 picks · 380 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 176 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
260 picks · 169 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:15
Brame 61%Cascade Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverFocus
51% · 34 games43% · 6 games
Anti-Mage7jesu
Anti-Mage
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
65% · 11 games50% · 4 games
Shadow FiendShisui
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarSkyLark
57% · 3 games51% · 53 games
Tuskrostislav_999
Tusk
Tidehunter
TidehunterCTOMAHEH1
43% · 64 games50% · 55 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Io
IoSsaSpartan
54% · 25 games49% · 19 games
UndyingKidaro
Undying
Game 2prediction correct49:33
Brame 62%Cascade Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckW1sh-
57% · 136 games57% · 13 games
Gyrocopter7jesu
Gyrocopter
Lifestealer
LifestealerFocus
41% · 9 games40% · 54 games
BloodseekerShisui
Bloodseeker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSkyLark
48% · 17 games63% · 23 games
Sand Kingrostislav_999
Sand King
Enigma
EnigmaSsaSpartan
41% · 27 games54% · 128 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
50% · 82 games44% · 53 games
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 70%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2