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ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
SsaSpartan · 12 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 11 games
18%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Focus · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
SsaSpartan · 10 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
60%

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
90%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 7 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MiLAN · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
428 picks · 172 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 476 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 619 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
306 picks · 691 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
294 picks · 520 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
283 picks · 119 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
260 picks · 343 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 327 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Creepwave
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total65% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
Brame 35%Creepwave 65%
The model gave 65% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 26:07.
Game 2prediction missed27:38
Brame 35%Creepwave 65%
The model gave 65% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Brame in 39:50.
Game 3prediction correct37:12
Brame 35%Creepwave 65%
The model gave 65% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 34:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 65%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3