Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Viperoften banned
SkyLark · 17 games
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 12 games
Silencersignature
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
Into The Breach
Marsoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Banesignature
5up · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Era · 6 games
Snapfire
Era · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 4 games
Jakiro
Peksu · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Supream^ · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
485 picks · 453 bans
Mars
484 picks · 674 bans
Bane
458 picks · 281 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 503 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 655 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 589 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:34
Brame 59%Into The Breach 41%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 49:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusThuG
Keeper of the LightSupream^
VisageSkyLark
JuggernautOtaker
Wraith KingFocus
Dragon KnightXibbe
Monkey KingdEsire
EnigmaKidaro
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
Skywrath MageAri
Game 2prediction correct34:16
Brame 62%Into The Breach 38%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinFocus
AlchemistOtaker
Dragon KnightThuG
EnigmaXibbe
BeastmasterSkyLark
Ember SpiritSupream^
Skywrath MagedEsire
ZeusAri
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
BaneKidaro
Game 3prediction missed17:25
Brame 62%Into The Breach 38%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 52:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinFocus
TerrorbladeOtaker
PuckThuG
UnderlordXibbe
BeastmasterSkyLark
Dragon KnightSupream^
MiranadEsire
Skywrath MageAri
AbaddonSsaSpartan
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 71%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3