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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Khanwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
55%
Axe
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
88%

Khan

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Dodren · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
layme · 4 games
75%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
goddam · 3 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
336 picks · 177 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 101 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 414 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
270 picks · 532 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
266 picks · 366 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 336 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
238 picks · 245 bans
59%
Abaddon
Abaddon
215 picks · 241 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:19
Brame 54%Khan 46%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNefrit
49% · 119 games47% · 60 games
Svenlayme
Sven
Pugna
PugnaW1sh-
47% · 11 games56% · 94 games
BatriderDodren
Batrider
Magnus
MagnusSkyLark
46% · 48 games52% · 103 games
Dark Willowgoddam
Dark Willow
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
44% · 95 games54% · 109 games
TidehunterpJonn
Tidehunter
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
50% · 93 gameslittle data
Dawnbreakerantoha
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction missed10:27
Brame 58%Khan 42%
The model gave 58% on Brame — the game was taken by Khan in 18:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzNefrit
51% · 19 games52% · 33 games
Terrorbladelayme
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendW1sh-
60% · 18 games50% · 44 games
BeastmasterpJonn
Beastmaster
Necrophos
NecrophosSkyLark
68% · 16 games37% · 83 games
TinyDodren
Tiny
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCTOMAHEH1
56% · 23 gameslittle data
Dawnbreakerantoha
Dawnbreaker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
55% · 120 games38% · 36 games
Earth Spiritgoddam
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction missed16:26
Brame 56%Khan 44%
The model gave 56% on Brame — the game was taken by Khan in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNefrit
50% · 146 games51% · 33 games
Anti-Magelayme
Anti-Mage
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
57% · 84 games54% · 121 game
TidehunterpJonn
Tidehunter
Underlord
UnderlordSkyLark
48% · 37 games49% · 120 games
InvokerDodren
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressCTOMAHEH1
48% · 109 games49% · 99 games
Earth Spiritgoddam
Earth Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSsaSpartan
49% · 51 game43% · 54 games
Ioantoha
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 63%
Series resultKhan 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3