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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Monkey Businessloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
61%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 18 games
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
43%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
43%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
43%

No Monkey Business

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
illusion · 10 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
xannii · 10 games
60%
Razor
Razorsignature
xannii · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
meLes · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 7 games
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
illusion · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 279 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 598 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 471 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
357 picks · 482 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
354 picks · 769 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 505 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 465 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 451 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
Brame 59%No Monkey Business 41%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaThuG
58% · 239 games52% · 68 games
Juggernautxannii
Juggernaut
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerFocus
47% · 73 games47% · 213 games
Dragon KnightmeLes
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingSkyLark
53% · 231 game49% · 270 games
Death Prophetxn丶e
Death Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
43% · 183 games48% · 242 games
Hoodwinkillusion
Hoodwink
Undying
UndyingSsaSpartan
56% · 67 games
Game 2prediction correct30:16
Brame 58%No Monkey Business 42%
The model gave 58% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFocus
44% · 118 games50% · 158 games
Kunkkaxannii
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
63% · 150 games44% · 143 games
Dragon KnightmeLes
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingThuG
59% · 220 games48% · 184 games
Death Prophetxn丶e
Death Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
50% · 99 games47% · 192 games
Grimstrokeillusion
Grimstroke
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagedEsire
47% · 90 games
Game 3prediction correct21:8
Brame 60%No Monkey Business 40%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 18:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFocus
48% · 60 games49% · 80 games
Chaos Knightxannii
Chaos Knight
Underlord
UnderlordSkyLark
46% · 52 games48% · 156 games
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightThuG
54% · 155 games46% · 69 games
AxemeLes
Axe
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagedEsire
54% · 63 games48% · 98 games
Keeper of the Lightillusion
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
57% · 73 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 65%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3