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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
qwerty44loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
38%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
SkyLark · 7 games
57%

qwerty44

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 7 games
14%
Bane
Bane
Fezor · 5 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
0%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 3 games
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 498 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
258 picks · 432 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
254 picks · 341 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
252 picks · 336 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
242 picks · 512 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
233 picks · 481 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 26%
Hero pool strength63% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:35
Brame 63%qwerty44 37%
The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 52:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNefrit
44% · 29 games51% · 72 games
Phantom LancerKom4rt
Phantom Lancer
Huskar
HuskarW1sh-
little data43% · 61 game
KunkkaUSHUSHUSH
Kunkka
Mars
MarsSkyLark
45% · 83 games54% · 69 games
DisruptorFezor
Disruptor
Bane
BaneSsaSpartan
64% · 14 games
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
55% · 76 games
Game 2prediction correct43:21
Brame 63%qwerty44 37%
The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNefrit
67% · 23 games53% · 63 games
InvokerUSHUSHUSH
Invoker
Tinker
TinkerW1sh-
little data48% · 18 games
SpectreKom4rt
Spectre
Axe
AxeSkyLark
47% · 49 games34% · 11 games
SilencerFezor
Silencer
Weaver
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
43% · 11 games
Bane
BaneSsaSpartan
34% · 9 games
Game 3prediction correct32:18
Brame 60%qwerty44 40%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNefrit
42% · 38 games49% · 47 games
SvenKom4rt
Sven
Mars
MarsW1sh-
47% · 97 games66% · 82 games
BeastmasterUSHUSHUSH
Beastmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSkyLark
36% · 16 games58% · 36 games
DisruptorFezor
Disruptor
Chen
ChenSsaSpartan
38% · 8 games
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCTOMAHEH1
43% · 6 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 70%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3