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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 12 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
78%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Fata · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
446 picks · 979 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
426 picks · 588 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 690 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 602 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
321 picks · 294 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 180 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
277 picks · 239 bans
43%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 387 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Brame 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFocus
48% · 31 game36% · 6 games
SlarkSkiter
Slark
Huskar
HuskarW1sh-
little data49% · 39 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSkyLark
59% · 35 games53% · 73 games
PuckNine
Puck
Rubick
RubickCTOMAHEH1
46% · 68 games48% · 13 games
TinySneyking
Tiny
Omniknight
OmniknightSsaSpartan
little data29% · 3 games
SnapfireFata
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct24:7
Brame 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 29:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerFocus
50% · 10 gameslittle data
SvenSkiter
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterW1sh-
52% · 52 games61% · 29 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSkyLark
45% · 34 games46% · 48 games
RubickNine
Rubick
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
43% · 3 games55% · 8 games
Winter WyvernSneyking
Winter Wyvern
Chen
ChenSsaSpartan
44% · 5 games48% · 19 games
AbaddonFata
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 60%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2