DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBCBreeki Cheekiloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Breeki Cheeki
Slardaroften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Clockwerk
OneJey · 3 games
Muerta
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Puckoften banned
спортик · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 1 game
Bristleback
ChodΣX · 1 game
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 1 game
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 43 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 40 games
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 33 games
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 31 game
Tiny
erase · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
637 picks · 694 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
488 picks · 398 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
412 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1084 bans
Puck
387 picks · 818 bans
Mars
380 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Breeki Cheeki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:17
Breeki Cheeki 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverDarkLord^
Faceless Voidssnovv1
TimbersawChodΣX
Queen of PainMirage
Ember Spiritспортик
BristlebackCorrupted
Phoenixasdekor_r
RubickRESPECT
MagnusOneJey
Shadow Demonsayuw
Game 2prediction missed23:21
Breeki Cheeki 33%HULIGANI 67%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 47:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterDarkLord^
Abaddonssnovv1
Viperспортик
Ember SpiritMirage
BatriderChodΣX
SlardarCorrupted
Chenasdekor_r
Hoodwinksayuw
MagnusOneJey
RingmasterRESPECT
Game 3prediction correct17:31
Breeki Cheeki 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaDarkLord^
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Storm Spiritспортик
DawnbreakerCorrupted
TidehunterChodΣX
Queen of PainMirage
Phoenixasdekor_r
BatriderRESPECT
Keeper of the LightOneJey
Shadow Demonsayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 77%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3