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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BTC Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ALIS VENTORUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BTC Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Alone · 5 games
40%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
25%

ALIS VENTORUS

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 7 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
50%
Luna
Luna
paw · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 3 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
paw · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 563 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 412 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
464 picks · 523 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
455 picks · 228 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
400 picks · 247 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 900 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% ALIS VENTORUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:50
BTC Gaming 48%ALIS VENTORUS 52%
The model gave 52% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 30:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMnz
50% · 168 games47% · 238 games
PuckPanda
Puck
Slardar
SlardarAlone
53% · 410 games40% · 225 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixPrada
53% · 323 games50% · 358 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Rubick
RubickMjz
57% · 235 games50% · 315 games
HoodwinkDelight
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct
BTC Gaming 46%ALIS VENTORUS 54%
The model gave 54% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteALIS VENTORUS · 54%
Series resultALIS VENTORUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2