DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BTC Gamingloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BTC Gaming
Disruptor
Prada · 7 games
Ringmaster
Mjz · 6 games
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Snapfire
Mjz · 4 games
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 26 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 22 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 20 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
Tusk
Immersion · 17 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
619 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
505 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 404 bans
Phoenix
441 picks · 483 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 205 bans
Warlock
409 picks · 255 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1036 bans
Puck
384 picks · 875 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:26
BTC Gaming 33%Power Rangers 67%
The model gave 67% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 19:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMnz
BeastmasterTA2000
AlchemistAlone
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
VenomancerPrada
DoomAlberkaaa
RubickMjz
HoodwinkImmersion
little data
Winter WyvernHduo
Game 2prediction correct11:44
BTC Gaming 30%Power Rangers 70%
The model gave 70% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 26:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritAlone
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
MorphlingMnz
LunaTA2000
LargoMjz
SlardarAlberkaaa
DisruptorPrada
RubickImmersion
48% · 438 games
TuskHduo
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 84%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2