DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bullsloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bulls
Phoenixoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
MoOz · 2 games
Luna
payk · 2 games
Tusk
MoOz · 2 games
Windranger
Vitaly · 2 games
Clockwerk
Gardick · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
Heroic
Vengeful Spirit
Scofield · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 6 games
Tiny
Scofield · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 4 games
Lion
Scofield · 4 games
Alchemist
K1 · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
258 picks · 373 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 431 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 387 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
202 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 446 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:27
Bulls 40%Heroic 60%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapayk
AbaddonK1
Primal BeastVitaly
Queen of Pain4nalog
GrimstrokeMoOz
KunkkaDavai
PugnaGardick
Vengeful SpiritKJ
54% · 85 games
LionScofield
Game 2prediction correct19:22
Bulls 40%Heroic 60%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linapayk
Troll WarlordK1
RazorVitaly
BeastmasterDavai
Vengeful SpiritMoOz
Ember Spirit4nalog
TuskGardick
DoomScofield
46% · 153 games
PhoenixKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 68%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2