Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'swin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A-Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bumble bEE's
Batrideroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Moo · 1 game
Jakiro
ppd · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Sneyking · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
dnm · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 1 game
A-Team
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Rises · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
153 picks · 271 bans
Puck
148 picks · 347 bans
Earth Spirit
136 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
131 picks · 191 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 130 bans
Nyx Assassin
102 picks · 343 bans
Keeper of the Light
101 picks · 184 bans
Rubick
98 picks · 49 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% A-Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:8
bumble bEE's 50%A-Team 50%
The model gave 50% on A-Team — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeFear
JuggernautRises
SnapfireMoo
Night StalkerTheBloodySky
Invokerdnm
Treant Protectorppd
Nyx AssassinSneyking
Game 2prediction missed46:19
bumble bEE's 50%A-Team 50%
The model gave 50% on A-Team — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritdnm
SlarkRises
Monkey KingFear
TimbersawTheBloodySky
TidehunterMoo
LionSneyking
Witch Doctorppd
Model check result
Model favoriteA-Team · 55%
Series resultbumble bEE's 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2