bumble bEE's vs Eternity — prediction DPC2S—СА1Д 2 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

bumble bEE'sloss 0:2

series probability

68%32%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Eternitywin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

bumble bEE's

Rubick

Sneyking · 6 games

50%

Tidehuntersignature

Moo · 6 games

83%

Juggernautoften banned

Fear · 5 games

40%

Witch Doctor

ppd · 5 games

60%

Batrideroften banned

Moo · 4 games

50%

Crystal Maiden

ppd · 4 games

25%

Enchantressoften banned

Moo · 4 games

50%

Leshracoften banned

dnm · 4 games

75%

Eternity

Lion

YamSun · 5 games

20%

Mirana

FrancisLee · 4 games

75%

Puckoften banned

Ryoya · 4 games

Void Spiritoften banned

Jubei · 4 games

100%

Witch Doctor

Jubei · 4 games

50%

Earthshaker

FrancisLee · 3 games

Juggernautoften banned

YamSun · 3 games

33%

Oracleoften banned

Jubei · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

434 picks · 984 bans

51%

Void Spirit

409 picks · 572 bans

53%

Death Prophet

365 picks · 708 bans

56%

Mars

352 picks · 585 bans

54%

Earth Spirit

309 picks · 305 bans

50%

Grimstroke

306 picks · 291 bans

45%

Tusk

304 picks · 207 bans

52%

Lion

253 picks · 137 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)48% vs 19%

Hero pool strength54% bumble bEE's

Head-to-head1 – 1

Model total68% bumble bEE's

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed21:32

bumble bEE's 62%Eternity 38%

The model gave 62% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by Eternity in 46:11.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

PuckRyoya

47% · 116 games48% · 36 games

MedusaEternaLEnVy