Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'sloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Quincy Crewwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bumble bEE's
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
Witch Doctor
ppd · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Ryoya · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
ppd · 4 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 1000 bans
Mars
354 picks · 573 bans
Void Spirit
343 picks · 526 bans
Grimstroke
340 picks · 354 bans
Lion
328 picks · 178 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 701 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
267 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:47
bumble bEE's 19%Quincy Crew 81%
The model gave 81% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 27:43.
Game 2prediction correct6:28
bumble bEE's 19%Quincy Crew 81%
The model gave 81% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 22:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 81%
Series resultQuincy Crew 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2