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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'sloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

bumble bEE's

Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
ppd · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ppd · 4 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
dnm · 4 games
75%

simply TOOBASED

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
428 picks · 961 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 556 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
355 picks · 707 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 572 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 299 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 283 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
271 picks · 142 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
bumble bEE's 41%simply TOOBASED 59%
The model gave 59% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 36:37.
Game 2prediction correct10:26
bumble bEE's 41%simply TOOBASED 59%
The model gave 59% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 38:56.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 59%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2