Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBFBurning Fireloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AAstronautswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Burning Fire
No games played over 6 months.
Astronauts
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
397 picks · 889 bans
Void Spirit
369 picks · 537 bans
Mars
320 picks · 580 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 527 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 244 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 162 bans
Wraith King
239 picks · 391 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Burning Fire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Burning Fire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteBurning Fire · 51%
Series resultAstronauts 1:2
Series predictionmissed