ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bushidowin 1:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Invoke_Pantheonloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bushido
Kunkkaoften banned
Covisnine · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Hoodwink
jAMES · 2 games
Invoke_Pantheon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
432 picks · 550 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 373 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 439 bans
Luna
316 picks · 372 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 577 bans
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 344 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Invoke_Pantheon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Bushido
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:39
Bushido 66%Invoke_Pantheon 34%
The model gave 66% on Bushido — the game was taken by Bushido in 1:07:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido · 66%
Series resultBushido 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1