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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BuyBack Brosloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ivorywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BuyBack Bros

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TrazaM · 1 game
0%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Beebie · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
0%
Pudge
Pudge
Nevermine · 1 game
0%

Ivory

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 7 games
14%
Tiny
Tiny
Rupido · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
503 picks · 262 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
472 picks · 474 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 977 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
299 picks · 146 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
298 picks · 490 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 507 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 618 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Ivory
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:41
BuyBack Bros 36%Ivory 64%
The model gave 64% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaBeebie
53% · 111 games44% · 32 games
WeaverRupido
Weaver
Timbersaw
TimbersawNevermine
54% · 131 game52% · 270 games
Dragon KnightKen
Dragon Knight
Invoker
InvokerWonder'boy
49% · 62 games51% · 114 games
JakiroTeehee
Jakiro
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTrazaM
46% · 126 games42% · 14 games
Skywrath MageDric~
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed0:0
BuyBack Bros 34%Ivory 66%
The model gave 66% on Ivory — the game was taken by BuyBack Bros in 50:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterWonder'boy
58% · 25 games53% · 65 games
AlchemistRupido
Alchemist
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTrazaM
46% · 20 games52% · 19 games
VenomancerKen
Venomancer
Luna
LunaNevermine
33% · 26 gameslittle data
NecrophosDric~
Necrophos
Visage
VisageBeebie
47% · 13 gameslittle data
Treant ProtectorTeehee
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct24:49
BuyBack Bros 35%Ivory 65%
The model gave 65% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWonder'boy
54% · 198 games46% · 170 games
Shadow FiendKen
Shadow Fiend
Abaddon
AbaddonBeebie
50% · 169 games53% · 216 games
Monkey KingRupido
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingNevermine
52% · 213 games51% · 174 games
Shadow DemonDric~
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTrazaM
46% · 191 game47% · 211 games
JakiroTeehee
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 77%
Series resultIvory 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3