Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionBLBuzz Lightyearloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5ManMidaswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Buzz Lightyear
Bloodseekeroften banned
PLOV · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
Axe
Steelborco · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
463 picks · 494 bans
Bane
439 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
422 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 603 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 420 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 807 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Buzz Lightyear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteBuzz Lightyear · 56%
Series result5ManMidas 0:2
Series predictionmissed