By_Owl Team vs ALOHADANCE Team — prediction SL# · Dota 2

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Streamers League #2 · BO3

result vs prediction

By_Owl Teamwin 2:0

series probability

79%21%

probability at match start · final 2:0

ALOHADANCE Teamloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

By_Owl Team

Dazzle

by_Owl · 3 games

67%

Juggernaut

Koma` · 3 games

67%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

reira · 3 games

67%

Phantom Assassin

Koma` · 3 games

33%

Warlock

by_Owl · 3 games

33%

Dark Seer

blindzone · 2 games

50%

Dark Willow

rostikfacekid · 2 games

50%

Death Prophet

blindzone · 2 games

ALOHADANCE Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

631 picks · 442 bans

53%

Rubick

600 picks · 344 bans

49%

Pangolier

442 picks · 646 bans

51%

Phoenix

428 picks · 498 bans

49%

Tiny

399 picks · 353 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

339 picks · 497 bans

51%

Storm Spirit

338 picks · 381 bans

47%

Puck

317 picks · 975 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% By_Owl Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total79% By_Owl Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct30:14

By_Owl Team 66%ALOHADANCE Team 34%

The model gave 66% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by By_Owl Team in 34:14.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo