Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Byzantine Raidersloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Byzantine Raiders
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
167 picks · 376 bans
Mars
162 picks · 295 bans
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 119 bans
Void Spirit
143 picks · 209 bans
Phoenix
127 picks · 145 bans
Keeper of the Light
111 picks · 199 bans
Nyx Assassin
111 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
106 picks · 57 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Byzantine Raiders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:22
Byzantine Raiders 41%Arkosh Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Byzantine Raiders in 38:28.
Game 2prediction correct21:32
Byzantine Raiders 41%Arkosh Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 37:34.
Game 3prediction correct11:36
Byzantine Raiders 41%Arkosh Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 59%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3