ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Call911loss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ivorywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Call911
No games played over 6 months.
Ivory
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Batrider
Dric~ · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
455 picks · 594 bans
Clockwerk
383 picks · 413 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 473 bans
Luna
328 picks · 400 bans
Enchantress
309 picks · 597 bans
Dark Willow
296 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 344 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 785 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Call911
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:29
Call911 26%Ivory 74%
The model gave 74% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 32:29.
Game 2prediction correct22:33
Call911 26%Ivory 74%
The model gave 74% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 30:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 74%
Series resultIvory 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2