DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportswin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MEMomentum Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Momentum Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 647 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 680 bans
Snapfire
449 picks · 164 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 525 bans
Hoodwink
424 picks · 202 bans
Mars
390 picks · 522 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Momentum Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:34
Carstensz Esports 39%Momentum Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Momentum Esports — the game was taken by Momentum Esports in 36:49.
Game 2prediction missed
Carstensz Esports 39%Momentum Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Momentum Esports — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteMomentum Esports · 61%
Series resultCarstensz Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2