DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz Esports
Hoodwink
ace12 · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Kezoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Muerta
Dreamocel · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
ace12 · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Team Nemesis
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 13 games
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 13 games
Muerta
Jhocam · 12 games
Jakirooften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
Slardaroften banned
Raven · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
633 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
512 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
485 picks · 394 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
407 picks · 363 bans
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1078 bans
Puck
385 picks · 806 bans
Mars
379 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:39
Carstensz Esports 30%Team Nemesis 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomseimei
Ursa23savage
WeaverDreamocel
PangolierMac
Hoodwinkace12
SlardarJabz
48% · 258 games
TuskQ
47% · 161 game
WarlockJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct1:1
Carstensz Esports 27%Team Nemesis 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorDreamocel
Nature's ProphetMac
Pangolierseimei
Monkey King23savage
Dark Willowace12
UnderlordJabz
54% · 56 games
RubickQ
51% · 114 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 86%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2