Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NNoUndyingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Shisui · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 3 games
NoUndying
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
Earth Spirit
velheor · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
Witch Doctor
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
387 picks · 857 bans
Void Spirit
362 picks · 515 bans
Mars
313 picks · 563 bans
Death Prophet
280 picks · 493 bans
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 238 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 156 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 516 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% NoUndying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% NoUndying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoUndying · 58%
Series resultCascade Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed