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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
44%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
43%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%

VP.Prodigy

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
dSa · 6 games
83%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 918 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 552 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
325 picks · 593 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
291 picks · 545 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 253 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 167 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
239 picks · 321 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 26%
Hero pool strength58% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Cascade Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:24
Cascade Esports 56%VP.Prodigy 44%
The model gave 56% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 28:22.
Game 2prediction correct12:26
Cascade Esports 56%VP.Prodigy 44%
The model gave 56% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 29:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteCascade Esports · 56%
Series resultCascade Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2