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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportswin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WhyTryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
44%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Shisui · 4 games
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 3 games
33%

WhyTry

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 885 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
368 picks · 531 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
320 picks · 573 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
285 picks · 515 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 243 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 161 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
239 picks · 388 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% WhyTry
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Cascade Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:18
Cascade Esports 52%WhyTry 48%
The model gave 52% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by WhyTry in 36:06.
Game 2prediction correct36:31
Cascade Esports 52%WhyTry 48%
The model gave 52% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 33:45.
Game 3prediction correct40:50
Cascade Esports 52%WhyTry 48%
The model gave 52% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 43:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteCascade Esports · 52%
Series resultCascade Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3