Castawake vs Execration — prediction RM2ЗК · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

CCastawakeloss 0:2

series probability

31%69%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Execrationwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Castawake

No games played over 6 months.

Execration

Terrorbladesignature

Akashi · 13 games

62%

Gyrocopteroften banned

Abat · 10 games

30%

Lichsignature

cml · 10 games

90%

Marcioften banned

Tino- · 9 games

33%

Clockwerksignature

Shanks · 8 games

63%

Magnusoften banned

Tino- · 7 games

57%

Muertasignature

Shanks · 6 games

67%

Phoenix

cml · 6 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

507 picks · 584 bans

51%

Jakiro

493 picks · 442 bans

50%

Ringmaster

466 picks · 232 bans

52%

Terrorblade

363 picks · 735 bans

47%

Storm Spirit

331 picks · 513 bans

52%

Ancient Apparition

328 picks · 756 bans

55%

Tusk

318 picks · 277 bans

48%

Windranger

303 picks · 93 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%

Hero pool strength50% Execration

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% Execration

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct11:29

Castawake 40%Execration 60%

The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 39:57.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Storm SpiritBob

44% · 256 games53% · 84 games

UrsaPalos