Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionCCastawakewin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Castawake
Lina
Bob · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 1 game
Razor
Fbz · 1 game
Riki
DJ · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 1 game
Tusk
DJ · 1 game
InterActive Philippines
Linasignature
Nishababy · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
516 picks · 582 bans
Jakiro
486 picks · 438 bans
Ringmaster
468 picks · 235 bans
Terrorblade
366 picks · 745 bans
Ancient Apparition
334 picks · 767 bans
Storm Spirit
333 picks · 511 bans
Tusk
319 picks · 288 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Castawake
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:16
Castawake 53%InterActive Philippines 47%
The model gave 53% on Castawake — the game was taken by Castawake in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyBob
PuckNishababy
BeastmasterFbz
RubickDJ
Game 2prediction correct37:10
Castawake 55%InterActive Philippines 45%
The model gave 55% on Castawake — the game was taken by Castawake in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetFbz
KunkkaNishababy
TinyBob
TuskDJ
Model check result
Model favoriteCastawake · 56%
Series resultCastawake 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2