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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Castawakewin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Castawake

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Bob · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Fbz · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
DJ · 1 game
0%

InterActive Philippines

Lina
Linasignature
Nishababy · 6 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nishababy · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 615 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
462 picks · 434 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
394 picks · 806 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
361 picks · 539 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 811 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 315 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
348 picks · 395 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Castawake
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Castawake
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:40
Castawake 56%InterActive Philippines 44%
The model gave 56% on Castawake — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
63% · 4 games53% · 39 games
LeshracNishababy
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey KingBob
56% · 23 games
Rubick
RubickDJ
31% · 12 games
Game 2prediction correct38:14
Castawake 51%InterActive Philippines 49%
The model gave 51% on Castawake — the game was taken by Castawake in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
43% · 31 game61% · 115 games
InvokerNishababy
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBob
26% · 23 games
Muerta
MuertaDJ
48% · 61 game
Game 3prediction missed44:28
Castawake 50%InterActive Philippines 50%
The model gave 50% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by Castawake in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
53% · 123 games52% · 350 games
Ember SpiritNishababy
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyFbz
44% · 167 games
Rubick
RubickDJ
45% · 60 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCastawake · 59%
Series resultCastawake 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3