Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Tusk
Fantasy · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
437 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
407 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 707 bans
Mars
350 picks · 586 bans
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 301 bans
Grimstroke
307 picks · 291 bans
Tusk
301 picks · 206 bans
Lion
254 picks · 138 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:40
CDEC Gaming 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 59:40.
Game 2prediction missed2:18
CDEC Gaming 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 13:34.
Game 3prediction missed22:27
CDEC Gaming 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 46:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 64%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3