?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CDEC Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Phoenix Gaming

Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 8 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Xwy · 7 games
86%
Lion
Lion
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1014 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 594 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
350 picks · 356 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
349 picks · 181 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
331 picks · 529 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
328 picks · 705 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 227 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 288 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:15
CDEC Gaming 41%Phoenix Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 31:33.
Game 2prediction correct27:26
CDEC Gaming 41%Phoenix Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 46:46.
Game 3prediction correct29:24
CDEC Gaming 41%Phoenix Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 42:55.
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 59%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3