Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
461 picks · 632 bans
Bane
442 picks · 269 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 444 bans
Sand King
416 picks · 565 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 621 bans
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 553 bans
Hoodwink
332 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:28
CDEC Gaming 46%Team MagMa 54%
The model gave 54% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 34:12.
Game 2prediction correct8:28
CDEC Gaming 46%Team MagMa 54%
The model gave 54% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 25:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 54%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2