Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Srf · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Another · 4 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
Bane
Dy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
345 picks · 509 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 175 bans
Bane
298 picks · 235 bans
Weaver
288 picks · 640 bans
Monkey King
257 picks · 730 bans
Tidehunter
256 picks · 396 bans
Ember Spirit
228 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
222 picks · 143 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
CDEC Gaming 26%Xtreme Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:26.
Game 2prediction correct32:37
CDEC Gaming 26%Xtreme Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:53.
Game 3prediction correct19:29
CDEC Gaming 26%Xtreme Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3