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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDUB Esportswin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
goonsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sanctified · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Sanctified · 7 games
29%

goons

Rubick
Rubick
Giant · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 3 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Giant · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
739 picks · 550 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
605 picks · 523 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
562 picks · 1099 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
558 picks · 1270 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
517 picks · 574 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
475 picks · 945 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1099 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 650 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:8
CDUB Esports 49%goons 51%
The model gave 51% on goons — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDouble King
49% · 109 games49% · 242 games
MorphlingBoris
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierMark
54% · 232 games45% · 92 games
VenomancerLil_Nick
Venomancer
Tidehunter
TidehunterislA
46% · 99 games45% · 201 game
Skywrath MageGiant
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubickSanctified
47% · 427 games53% · 409 games
DisruptorJubei
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaDuster
61% · 77 games
Game 2prediction missed32:11
CDUB Esports 48%goons 52%
The model gave 52% on goons — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerDouble King
44% · 76 games50% · 62 games
JuggernautBoris
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMark
41% · 236 games47% · 121 game
MarsLil_Nick
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerislA
45% · 90 games49% · 196 games
TechiesGiant
Techies
Chen
ChenDuster
71% · 48 games54% · 174 games
DisruptorJubei
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaSanctified
50% · 103 games
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 51%
Series resultCDUB Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2