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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
CDUB Esportswin 1:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The Cutloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CDUB Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 9 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 8 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Double King · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Mark · 7 games
86%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Duster · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mark · 6 games
67%

The Cut

Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 14 games
79%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 11 games
36%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 9 games
67%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
bgod · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 473 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
612 picks · 644 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1235 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1052 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 681 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 919 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
CDUB Esports 55%The Cut 45%
The model gave 55% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 55%
Series resultCDUB Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1