Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
chandogsloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Red Hot Chili Pibblewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
chandogs
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Argius · 2 games
Luna
Argius · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Puckoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Red Hot Chili Pibble
Snapfireoften banned
Alone · 3 games
Disruptor
Prada · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Bane
Prada · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Hoodwink
Mjz · 1 game
Luna
Mnz · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alone · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
598 picks · 365 bans
Phoenix
490 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
484 picks · 261 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
403 picks · 550 bans
Puck
337 picks · 910 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 843 bans
Tusk
324 picks · 276 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Red Hot Chili Pibble
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% chandogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:28
chandogs 56%Red Hot Chili Pibble 44%
The model gave 56% on chandogs — the game was taken by Red Hot Chili Pibble in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritS1RENM
MuertaMnz
55% · 54 games
RubickAlone
50% · 20 games
Spirit BreakerMjz
61% · 34 games
Treant ProtectorPrada
Game 2prediction correct0:100
chandogs 61%Red Hot Chili Pibble 39%
The model gave 61% on chandogs — the game was taken by chandogs in 38:54.
Game 3prediction missed6:33
chandogs 54%Red Hot Chili Pibble 46%
The model gave 54% on chandogs — the game was taken by Red Hot Chili Pibble in 20:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireS1RENM
TinyMnz
53% · 34 games
RubickAlone
52% · 17 games
TechiesMjz
52% · 123 games
DisruptorPrada
Model check result
Model favoritechandogs · 61%
Series resultRed Hot Chili Pibble 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3