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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cheeki_Breekiwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cheeki_Breeki

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Malik · 3 games
33%
Weaver
Weaver
OneJey · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Xakoda · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axe
Malik · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Xakoda · 1 game
100%

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
17%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
558 picks · 669 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
506 picks · 335 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 660 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
425 picks · 152 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 196 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 516 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 501 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Cheeki_Breeki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Cheeki_Breeki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Cheeki_Breeki 66%Team Spirit Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on Cheeki_Breeki — the game was taken by Cheeki_Breeki in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
52% · 110 games56% · 111 games
Tinker86
Tinker
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
46% · 53 games63% · 27 games
Clinkzrubikon155
Clinkz
Tidehunter
TidehunterMalik
47% · 81 game50% · 210 games
SlardarSunshineRR
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroXakoda
42% · 179 games50% · 37 games
TechiesAidar
Techies
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
41% · 16 games55% · 54 games
Ogre Magikyford
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct36:17
Cheeki_Breeki 69%Team Spirit Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on Cheeki_Breeki — the game was taken by Cheeki_Breeki in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDarkLord^
48% · 109 games56% · 38 games
Broodmotherrubikon155
Broodmother
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
51% · 123 games43% · 13 games
Outworld Destroyer86
Outworld Destroyer
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalik
56% · 67 games49% · 271 game
MarsSunshineRR
Mars
Warlock
WarlockXakoda
49% · 136 games42% · 31 game
TechiesAidar
Techies
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
55% · 16 games50% · 98 games
Dazzlekyford
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteCheeki_Breeki · 82%
Series resultCheeki_Breeki 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2